COVID-19 Scenario Might Worsen, Cuban Mathematician

Mathematical models by Cuban experts, based on the increase in cases of COVID-19 in recent days, suggest that the disease scenario in the country will become more complex in August if protection measures are not taken quickly.

Raul Guinovart, dean of the Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science, said on Tuesday on the TV program Mesa Redonda that several studies developed in the country indicate that recovery will be slow and the disease will remain until late this year and even longer.

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Based on the current circumstances, the models suggest that in the most critical scenario, the number of cases could reach up to four times the peak of the disease last April.

These estimates may not be reached with the incorporation of government measures such as those already being applied in Havana, but above all with the people’s discipline in fulfilling them, Guinovart stressed.

There are three simple measures but they have a very high impact: using mask, washing hands frequently and maintaining physical distance, the expert concluded.